Despite geopolitical tensions and concerns about supply chains, global trade grew by about 4% in the first quarter of 2026, the United Nations trade and development agency said on Thursday, noting that East Asia was the main driver of this growth.
According to UN Trade and Development, global trade in goods is projected to reach approximately $13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, representing a 12.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Trade in services grew by 10.5%.
Together, goods and services added approximately $2 trillion to global trade, putting it on track to reach a record annual level.
The immediate forecasts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) suggest that trade will continue to grow in the second quarter, particularly in goods. However, the UN agency specifies that much of this increase reflects higher prices rather than increased trade volumes.
Impact of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
The report indicates that global trade continues to face uncertainties related to geopolitical tensions, evolving trade policies and supply chain disruptions.
“Disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with concerns about energy supplies, have led to higher energy, transportation, logistics, and production costs,” the document states. Prices of traded goods rose by approximately 3.6% in the first quarter and are estimated to have increased by around 5% in the second quarter, largely reflecting higher energy and certain commodity prices.
According to UNCTAD, disruptions affecting logistics, shipping routes and supply chains, combined with rising transport and energy costs, could weigh on global trade, business confidence, investment and economic growth, while also increasing inflationary pressures and the fragmentation of trade.
UNCTAD/Jan Hoffmann Containers in a port of Sao Tome and Principe. (archives)
East Asia at the forefront of uneven expansion
East Asia was the main driver of global trade growth in the first quarter, with China and the Republic of Korea posting the strongest increases in merchandise trade, the report said.
Developing economies and South-South trade have registered double-digit growth over the past 12 months, when East Asian economies were taken into account.
Among major economies, the Republic of Korea recorded the strongest quarterly export growth at 20%, followed by China at 11%. China’s imports increased by 13%, the largest rise among major economies.
But when East Asia was excluded, developing economies as a whole saw their merchandise trade contract, mainly due to lower imports and exports from West and South Asia.
Furthermore, Africa and Europe have experienced strong growth in their imports over the past 12 months.
AI and electric mobility
In the first quarter, the trade in critical minerals recorded the fastest growth, at 38%. Semiconductors increased by 25%, electronics by 18%, batteries by 15%, information and communication technology products by 14%, and electric vehicles by 11%.
Hybrid vehicles also continued to perform well. Conversely, trade in solar and wind energy products contracted during the quarter, while fossil fuel trade increased, mainly due to higher prices.
At the broader manufacturing level, trade in electrical machinery increased by 13%, in machinery by 8%, and in other base metals by 13%. Trade in chemicals, as well as in iron and steel, contracted. The minerals sector grew by 22%, supported by strong demand and higher prices.
According to UNCTAD, demand for products related to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, batteries, critical minerals and electric vehicles is expected to remain a key driver of trade growth throughout the second half of 2026.
